Every day $125 is awarded for aggregate prediction accuracy in a randomly chosen sub-category. This page explains the contests at a high level but you are advised to consult the prize documentation page for the most up to date information.
- Every day at midnight standings will be polled from one of several sub-categories listed by sponsor on the leaderboard.
- Every algorithm with a positive score and an assigned email will have a chance of winning the current prize, proportional to their score raised to an exponent. If the chosen algorithm has no email assigned, the prize will jackpot.
- After midnight, points will be multiplied by a discount factor.
To select streams that are pertinent to prizes, you can filter on the sponsor in listing.The prefixes of streams are also suggestive, as enumerated below. The z'streams (starting with z~ in the name) do not count towards the daily prize, generally speaking.
(But again, see the prize documentation page or the prize api)
||Sponsor public key
|Moments, correlations, etc
Only the 1hr ahead predictions count towards the prize determination.
||Count towards daily prize?
|910 seconds (15 mins, 10 seconds)
|3555 seconds (shy of 1 hr)
Winners will receive an email with a code they can use to redeem $100, and further instructions.
- You must use the set_email() method to link an email to your crawler or set it directly with a call to the API.
- To win this contest you need to make good distributional predictions across a number of different time series. Perhaps start by looking at the existing open-source entries on the leaderboards. Click the CODE badges.
- It is also a good idea to go through the tutorials and understand the strategy involved with this game. Read The Lottery Paradox.
- Visit the Knowledge Center to learn how to deploy a model that monitors live streams and submits predictions.
- See the microprediction client README for a Slack invite and details of Google Meets held weekly.
- You may find complete contest rules here
Behavior judged to be counter to the spirit of this community may result in write_key blacklisting and other measures.