Daily $125 Prize for Time-Series Prediction

Total Reward: $45,625 per year Start: Sep 22, 2021 | End: Sep 1, 2023 or later Sponsor: Microprediction

Description

Every day $125 is awarded for aggregate prediction accuracy in a randomly chosen sub-category. 

Winner determination

  1. Every day at midnight standings will be polled from one of several sub-categories listed by sponsor on the leaderboard.
  2. Every algorithm with a positive score and an assigned email will have a chance of winning the current prize, proportional to their score raised to an exponent. If the chosen algorithm has no email assigned, the prize will jackpot. 
  3. After midnight, points will be multiplied by a discount factor.  

Streams

To select streams that are pertinent to prizes, you can filter on the sponsor in listing.  

The prefixes of streams are also suggestive, as enumerated below. 

 The z'streams (starting with z~ in the name) do not count towards the daily prize.  

Sponsor Sponsor public key Topic Prefix (Example) Prob
Hebdomad Leech 6ebd03ad1eec6897b9414ff2a1b4501a Equities 'xray', 'yarx' 60%
Fathom Gazelle
fa76039a2e11ed1f7d5d2cfef240455d
Moments, correlations, etc 'fathom' 10%
Legless Ocelot
1e91e550ce1074ef3ac137398ac2b949
FAANG stocks 'faang','gnaff' 10%
Emblossom Moth
e3b1055033076108b4279c473cde3a67
Crypto 'c2', 'c5' 10%
Offcast Goose
0ffca579005ef5d8757270f007c4db76
Electricity 'electricity' 10%

Horizons

Only the 1hr ahead predictions count towards the prize determination. 

Horizon Count towards daily prize?
70 seconds No
310 seconds No
910 seconds (15 mins, 10 seconds) No
3555 seconds (shy of 1 hr) Yes

Redemption

Winners will receive an email with a code they can use to redeem $100, and further instructions. 

Advice

  • You must use the set_email() method to link an email to your crawler or set it directly with a call to the API.   
  • To win this contest you need to make good distributional predictions across a number of different time series. Perhaps start by looking at the existing open-source entries on the leaderboards.  Click the CODE badges. 
  • It is also a good idea to go through the tutorials and understand the strategy involved with this game. Read The Lottery Paradox
  • Visit the Knowledge Center to learn how to deploy a model that monitors live streams and submits predictions. 
  • See the microprediction client README for a Slack invite and details of Google Meets held weekly.
  • You may find complete contest rules here

Behavior judged to be counter to the spirit of this community may result in write_key blacklisting and other measures.