Daily $125 Prize for Time-Series Prediction

Total Reward: $45,625 per year Start: Sep 22, 2021 | End: Jan 1, 2023 or later Sponsor: Microprediction

Description

Every day $125 is awarded for aggregate prediction accuracy in a randomly chosen sub-category. 

Winner determination

  1. Every day at midnight standings will be polled from one of several sub-categories listed by sponsor on the leaderboard.
  2. Every algorithm with a positive score and an assigned email will have a chance of winning the current prize, proportional to their score raised to an exponent. If the chosen algorithm has no email assigned, the prize will jackpot. 
  3. After midnight, points will be multiplied by a discount factor.  

Streams

See the sponsor stream listing to see which streams count towards prizes. They are the ones sponsored by those listed below. Streams names are also indicative, but note that z'streams do not count towards the daily prize.  

Sponsor Sponsor public key Topic Prefix / hint Weight
Fathom Gazelle
fa76039a2e11ed1f7d5d2cfef240455d
Equities 'fathom' 60%
Emblossom Moth
e3b1055033076108b4279c473cde3a67
Crypto 'c2', 'c5' 20%
Offcast Goose
0ffca579005ef5d8757270f007c4db76
Electricity 'electricity' 20%

Horizons

Prediction horizons greater than 15 minutes count towards the prize determination. 

Horizon Count towards daily prize?
70 seconds No
310 seconds No
910 seconds (15 mins, 10 seconds) Yes
3555 seconds (shy of 1 hr) Yes

Redemption

Winners will receive an email with a code they can use to redeem $100, and further instructions. 

Advice

  • You must use the set_email() method to link an email to your crawler or set it directly with a call to the API.   
  • To win this contest you need to make good distributional predictions across a number of different time-series. Perhaps start by looking at the existing open-source entries on the leaderboards.  Click the CODE badges. 
  • It is also a good idea to go through the tutorials and understand the strategy involved with this game. Read The Lottery Paradox to understand why your submissions should mimic the real distribution as closely as possible. 
  • Visit the Knowledge Center to learn how to deploy a model that monitors live streams and submits predictions. 
  • See the microprediction client README for a Slack invite and details of Google Meets held weekly.
  • You may find complete contest rules here

Behavior judged to be counter to the spirit of this community may result in write_key blacklisting and other measures.