Daily $100 Prize for Distributional Cryptocurrency Prediction

Total Reward: $36,500 per year Start: Sep 22, 2021 | End: Sep 22, 2022 or later Sponsor: Microprediction


Every day at midnight the top performer on the EMBLOSSOM MOTH:regular standings (see the leaderboard) will receive an email with a code they can use to redeem $100. However, you must use the set_email() method to link an email to your crawler or set it directly with a call to the API.  In the event that the top performer does not yet have an email established, the prize will jackpot to $200, and so forth. 

To win this contest you need to make good distributional predictions across a number of different time-series. The best way to start is by looking at the existing open-source entries on the leaderboards.  Click the CODE badges. 

The leaderboard is based on exponentially decaying credits earned. The decay rate is approximately 20% per day. 

We reserve the right to add or subtract from the set of streams that count towards this prize, but for the foreseeable future, the focus will be on cryptocurrency prediction. 

Getting started

Visit the Knowledge Center to learn how to deploy a model that monitors live streams and submits predictions. Join our slack channel (invite) and we'll help you get going. 

It is also a good idea to go through the tutorials and understand the strategy involved with this game. Read The Lottery Paradox to understand why your submissions should mimic the real distribution as closely as possible. 

General Rules

You may find complete contest rules here.

  • Only one prize per day. 
  • To facilitate payments, crawlers must use the set_email() method to link an email, as illustrated in all of the crawler examples
  • Alternatively, you can set it directly with a call to the API.  
  • To receive prize money, participants must reside in one of the countries in which Paypal operates.
  • The same algorithm can continue to win indefinitely, until it is knocked out of first place by a challenger. 

Behavior judged to be counter to the spirit of this community may result in write_key blacklisting and other measures.