First time here?
If you need context, here's a first look and some use cases to get you thinking about the potential for an open democratic prediction network.
It moved to Frequently asked questions. Raise an issue on Github, or email us if you are stuck.
Python Ultra-Quick Start
There's a new way to enter contests that is dead easy and "set and forget". Just fork this repository and enable GitHub actions. There's a notebook in the repo you can use to generate yourself an identity. There are some limitations to this approach, but it will get you on the leaderboards very quickly. If you enjoy copulas of multivariate distributional estimation, this one's for you!
See also our guide to GitHub actions and the blog article How to Enter a Cryptocurrency Copula Contest.
Python Video Tutorials
If you are looking to create streams or run "crawlers" which continuously predict streams in-process, it is best to work through these tutorials covering the basics.
- Your first submission
- Your first crawler
- Retrieving historical data
- Creating a data stream
- Modifying how your crawler makes predictions
- Modifying where your crawler makes predictions
Python Notebook Examples
The repository contains notebook examples you can easily run (for example just open them in Google Colab).
More Python Patterns
You can love or leave
- FitCrawler (Comal Cheetah) re-estimates models during downtime. It illustrates some abstracts that might drastically shorten your path to creating good crawlers, notably:
- GitHub actions enable free ongoing scheduled computation. This is a great pattern for participation when a running process (crawler) is overkill, or when on-the-fly model fitting is unwieldy. With GitHub actions you can:
- Maintain a repository with up to date model parameters like these expnorm files.
- Top up your balance, as with the key maker.
- Submit predictions for z-streams, as with this example.
- Generate reports and pretty pictures.
- Bouncing using bash scripts, or otherwise, to keep your crawler going.
More on the way.
Welcome R statisticians!
More on the way soon.
Welcome, Julia developers! Video tutorials are on the way. For now:
More at Rusty's repo including an advanced electricity prediction project.
Be sure you understand the mechanics of how predictions are quarantined and rewarded.
- An Introduction to Z-Streams explains mechanics, quarantine and implied percentiles.
- The Lottery Paradox article discusses the accuracy and reward of distributional predictions.
- The Guide to Crawler Examples includes good jumping off points, including ARIMA, ESN, NN or wacky filters for noisy data.
- Our Listing of Python Time Series Packages ranks prediction, outlier, classification, causality, copula, change-point, matrix-profiling, distribution fitting, hyper-parameter optimization, back-testing libraries and more - all ranked by downloads.
- Read How to Enter a Cryptocurrency Copula Contest to better understand the motivations.
For those who may be interested, and willing to invest the time, here is a sequence of talks providing what is hopefully a coherent case for an open prediction network. It isn't an elevator pitch. Along the way, we explain why vendor Automated Machine Learning and previous attempts at crowdsourcing might violate a fundamental axiom, at least if quantitative business optimization is to be fully democratized. Pro tip: Some people like to start with #3.
- A first look at microprediction and how it gives rise to the "ten minute data science project".
- What must a microprediction oracle do? The answer isn't Kaggle, or DataRobot.
- Business uses of microprediction include pretty much everything (unless "prediction" is in the name, ironically).
- Repeated value function prediction provides the link between microprediction and Control Theory and Reinforcement Learning, which is why microprediction is truly general.
- Why algorithms make excellent managers, and by implication why humans are terrible. Copious theory means algorithms are well placed to orchestrate production of prediction. Humans need not occupy a blocking role.
Learn to Code
If one person decides to learn to code so they can use the prediction network, we're done. Seriously it isn't that hard. Here are some entirely free ways to get going.
- Visual Coding and games to get started with coding concepts (my daughter and I love some of these)
- Learn to Code, in Python if you've never coded before.
- Learn Python more quickly if you've coded in another language.
Please contact us if you can help improve these resources. As noted above we'd love to answer your questions via Gitter, or issues on Github, the discussion on GitHub, or even questions at Quora. You can also email us directly.