Welcome Module 1

A first look at microprediction

AI is Repeated Prediction

Today the phrase Artificial Intelligence describes activities that boil down to repeated prediction. 

The best way to achieve high quality, low cost repeated prediction is to allow anyone to compete for its provision. 

That isn't a new idea. Markets have crowdsourced probabilistic intelligence for over a hundred years, since the construction of the Julius Totalizator machine in 1913.

Now, unencumbered by technology constraints of the past, we're attempting to take competitive information aggregation to an entirely different plane. 

This site is, we hope, the beginning of something analogous to the web itself. It is something you can participate in, and benefit from, now. It is something that might be transformative later, with your help.  

Imagine awaking one day to a world in which all manner of real-time intelligence is at your fingertips. This intelligence is a view into the near future, with a horizon of minutes or hours. 

In this world you have access to a surprisingly cost-effective means of predicting anything - so long as you can instrument it, and so long as the prediction task is a repeated one.




As you can see, a prediction network is not organized the same way most companies are, or most teams of data scientists. Rather, it is sewn together in the loosest possible way, powered ultimately by the action of the invisible hand of market forces. This new form of information trade occurs between statistical algorithms as they play repeated games.



Business optimization isn't just for the largest firms who can afford teams of data scientists. A prediction network can benefit everyone when data, models and feature spaces are shared and reused.

Self-navigating algorithms

If we make it  little easier for algorithms to find their own way to problems, and solve them, we can dramatically lower the cost of bespoke data science for organizations of all sizes. 

If you'd like to create one right now, hop over to the crawling  instructions and let your creation loose on the world. 

Collective turnkey prediction

In the world we are trying to create, repeated short term prediction is free and instantly available.  See the ten minute data science project for an illustration. 

If you'd like to try it out, feel free to get started with publishing, or head to the introductory Python modules. 


In the next module we reason as to what a microprediction oracle must be