Today the phrase Artificial Intelligence describes activities that boil down to repeated prediction.
The best way to achieve high quality, low cost repeated prediction is to allow anyone to compete for its provision.
That isn't a new idea. Markets have crowdsourced probabilistic intelligence for over a hundred years, since the construction of the Julius Totalizator machine in 1913.
Now, unencumbered by technology constraints of the past, we're attempting to take competitive information aggregation to an entirely different plane.
This site is, we hope, the beginning of something analogous to the web itself. It is something you can participate in, and benefit from, now. It is something that might be transformative later, with your help.
Imagine awaking one day to a world in which all manner of real-time intelligence is at your fingertips. This intelligence is a view into the near future, with a horizon of minutes or hours.
In this world you have access to a surprisingly cost-effective means of predicting anything - so long as you can instrument it, and so long as the prediction task is a repeated one.
As you can see, a prediction network is not organized the same way most companies are, or most teams of data scientists. Rather, it is sewn together in the loosest possible way, powered ultimately by the action of the invisible hand of market forces. This new form of information trade occurs between statistical algorithms as they play repeated games.
